IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Zambia
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Why Zambia Is Better Positioned Today to Withstand Global Shocks
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AN International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Edward Gemayel, visited Zambia from February 26 to March 4, 2026, as part of the Fund’s regular engagement with the Zambian authorities and other stakeholders.
At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Gemayel issued the following statement:
“The IMF team held constructive discussions with the Zambian authorities on recent macroeconomic developments, the evolving outlook, and policy priorities for the period ahead. Zambia has made substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability under the recently completed IMF-supported program. Public external debt has been largely restructured, international reserves have strengthened, growth has picked up, and inflation has continued to decline—recently reaching the Bank of Zambia’s target band. These outcomes reflect sustained reform efforts and have helped reinforce Zambia’s credibility with creditors and market participants.
“The economic outlook remains positive, although downside risks have increased amid domestic challenges and heightened global uncertainty. Growth for 2025 has been revised downward to 4.5 percent, reflecting weaker-than-expected performance in the mining sector, softer wholesale trade, and continued energy-related constraints on non-mining activities. The moderation in growth projected for 2026, at 5.5 percent, reflects a normalization of agricultural output following last year’s bumper harvest. Rising global oil prices and elevated geopolitical tensions could exert renewed pressure on inflation and the exchange rate. Should these persist, appropriate domestic price adjustments to higher international oil prices would help mitigate potential losses in fuel tax revenues. Against this backdrop, building buffers and preserving policy discipline will be essential.
“The mission also discussed emerging fiscal pressures. While the 2026 budget framework targets a strong primary surplus, early signs of slippage have begun to emerge, reflecting spending pressures related to the wage bill, government support to the agricultural sector, and election‑related expenditures. In this context, the scale and financing of the Food Reserve Agency’s operations will require careful management to avoid the reemergence of quasi‑fiscal risks. Absent corrective measures, the 2026 primary surplus is projected to fall by about 1 percentage point of GDP relative to the 3.8 percent of GDP envisaged at the last review under the recently completed ECF‑supported program.
“IMF staff underscored the importance of transparently integrating all spending pressures into the fiscal framework, supported by appropriate contingency measures, and of preserving the hard‑won gains achieved under the program. Fiscal structural reforms should remain focused on strengthening revenue and customs administration to broaden the tax base and support a more progressive, equitable, and less complex tax system.
“The authorities reiterated their interest in a successor arrangement. Staff emphasized that the next phase of engagement should focus on further strengthening macroeconomic stability and advancing reforms to improve the business climate and support private sector‑led growth. In this context, staff noted that initial discussions could begin as early as late April. However, in light of the electoral calendar, discussions would be expected to resume only after the general elections later this year and after a new government is in place, which would allow for greater clarity on policy priorities.
“The IMF team would like to thank the Zambian authorities and all stakeholders for their open and constructive engagement. The Fund remains committed to supporting Zambia’s reform efforts and the preservation of macroeconomic stability.
“During this visit, the team met with the President of the Republic of Zambia, Hakainde Hichilema, Finance Minister Musokotwane, Bank of Zambia Governor Kalyalya, senior government officials, and representatives of CSOs and development partners.”
Source: IMF Media Center
MTN MoMo Partners with Zanaco on POS Payments and ATM Cash Out
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MTN Mobile Money Zambia yesterday announced a partnership with Zanaco Bank to introduce two innovations: MoMo payments on Zanaco Point of Sale (POS) machines and ATM Cash Outs.
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By Professor Lubinda Haabazoka
The United States and Israel conflict with Iran has the potential to create turbulence in global energy markets and international trade routes. Zambia enters this period from a far stronger macroeconomic position than it would have just a few years ago. Several structural improvements in the economy, including stronger foreign exchange reserves, improving fiscal discipline, rising copper prices, and progress in domestic fertilizer production, collectively provide important buffers against external volatility.
These developments do not eliminate exposure to global shocks, but they significantly improve Zambia’s capacity to absorb and manage them.
Strengthened Foreign Exchange Reserves
One of the most important improvements in Zambia’s macroeconomic fundamentals has been the rebuilding of foreign exchange reserves. The country’s reserves have increased to approximately US 5.5 billion, representing close to five months of import cover. This marks a significant recovery from earlier periods when reserves were considerably lower and external buffers were thin.
For those that have been asking why we need increased reserves, this is the time to appreciate them. And honestly the President and his team needs commendation on this. Stronger reserves provide the central bank with the capacity to smooth exchange rate volatility during periods of global financial stress. Stronger reserves also provide assurance to international markets that Zambia can meet its external payment obligations. This reduces the likelihood of speculative pressure on the Kwacha and helps maintain confidence among investors and creditors.
Improving Macroeconomic Fundamentals
Zambia’s broader macroeconomic environment has also improved in recent years. Economic growth has recovered, fiscal consolidation efforts have strengthened public finance management, and progress in debt restructuring has restored international confidence.
These improvements are critical because external shocks tend to affect weaker economies more severely. When fiscal deficits are high and reserves are low, even moderate global disruptions can trigger currency crises, inflation surges, and financial instability. Conversely, stronger macroeconomic fundamentals allow policymakers to respond to shocks with greater flexibility.
In Zambia’s case, the improved macroeconomic framework means that temporary oil price spikes or trade disruptions are less likely to trigger systemic instability.
The Copper Advantage
Another important protective factor is Zambia’s position as one of the world’s major copper producers. Copper accounts for more than 70 percent of Zambia’s export earnings, and global demand for copper remains structurally strong.
Geopolitical uncertainty often drives investors toward commodities and physical assets. Higher copper prices can partially offset the negative effects of rising oil prices by boosting export revenues and strengthening foreign exchange inflows. If copper prices remain elevated during periods of geopolitical instability, Zambia’s trade balance may remain more stable than that of many other energy importing economies.
Local Fertilizer Production and Reduced Import Dependence
Another structural development that strengthens Zambia’s resilience is the expansion of local fertilizer production capacity. As mentioned recently by President Hakainde Hichilema, Zambia has relied heavily on imported fertilizer, exposing the agricultural sector to global price fluctuations driven by energy costs and supply chain disruptions. In recent years, investments in domestic fertilizer blending and production have begun to reduce this dependency. Local production not only lowers import requirements but also shortens supply chains and stabilizes input availability for farmers.
Economic Diversification and Trade Networks
Although Zambia’s trade linkages with Gulf economies, including Dubai and Fujairah, expose the country to disruptions in Middle Eastern logistics and financial hubs, these linkages are also increasingly diversified. Zambia trades across multiple corridors, including Southern African regional routes, European markets, and Asian commodity buyers.
A More Resilient Economy
Taken together, stronger foreign exchange reserves, improved fiscal discipline, rising copper revenues, and increased domestic fertilizer production create a more resilient economic structure than Zambia had during previous global crises.
This does not mean that Zambia would be immune to the effects of a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict. Higher oil prices would still raise fuel costs. Freight and insurance costs could increase. Supply chains could face temporary disruptions.
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