PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE MAY NEED OVER 3 MILLION VOTES TO AVOID RE-RUN – MWANZA
DEMOCRATIC Progressive Party (DPP) president Antonio Mourinho Mwanza says a presidential candidate in the 2026 general election is likely to require more than three million votes to secure an outright victory and avoid a presidential re-run.
In a statement analysing Zambia’s electoral landscape ahead of the August 13 polls, Mwanza argued that elections were determined by figures rather than political rhetoric, stating that “politics is about numbers. Forget the noise.”
He added that, in his view, “most voters have already made up their mind who they will be voting for on 13 August 2026.”
Mwanza said the Constitution required a presidential candidate to obtain “50% + 1 of the valid votes cast to become President,” but noted that the actual number of votes needed would depend on voter turnout and the number of valid ballots.
Using the Electoral Commission of Zambia’s voter register of 8,786,300, he projected that turnout could range between 68 and 72 percent, translating into approximately six million to 6.3 million votes cast, with valid votes estimated at between 5.9 million and 6.2 million.
Based on those projections, Mwanza said “the constitutional threshold to win outright and avoid a re-run is likely to be around 2.9 to 3.1 million votes.”
However, he advised presidential hopefuls not to rely on the minimum constitutional requirement, arguing that “any serious presidential candidate should aim for at least 3.2 to 3.4 million votes to be absolutely safe and secure victory in the first round.”
He further cautioned that a slight increase in voter turnout, fewer rejected ballots or stronger participation in battleground provinces such as Lusaka and the Copperbelt, as well as higher turnout in candidates’ regional strongholds, could push the winning threshold even higher.
Mwanza warned that “campaigns that are only planning for the minimum are taking a huge gamble,” before urging eligible Zambians to turn out in large numbers and preserve peace during the August 13 general election.
