IT IS SUICIDAL FOR MUNDUBILE, MAKEBI TO IGNORE UPND STRONGHOLDS
Moses C Kuwema writes:
To the people looking forward to a change of government this August through Brian Mundubile and Makebi Zulu, let us objectively examine the political realities without attaching emotions to the discussion.
Some of you supporters of Mundubile & Makebi, are saying the duo don’t need UPND strongholds of Southern, Western & Northwestern provinces saying it’s a waste of time to campaign in those geographical locations.
The 2026 voter register shows that North-Western Province has 524,195 registered voters, Southern Province 1,103,275, and Western Province 629,352. Together, these three provinces account for 2,256,822 registered voters.
It would be politically unwise for any serious opposition party to completely ignore more than 2.2 million registered voters.
Let’s go back to 2021.
In the August 12, 2021 general elections, President Hakainde Hichilema emerged victorious against his closest rival Edgar Lungu in six out of the 10 provinces.
The provinces in which President Hichilema emerged victorious were as follows; Lusaka, Copperbelt, Southern, Western, North-Western & Central.
Late President Lungu won in four provinces namely Northern, Muchinga, Eastern & Luapula.
On the Copperbelt province, out of the 745,554 total votes cast, President Hichilema got 420,443 votes representing about 56 % of the votes cast. President Lungu polled 300,413 votes representing 40% of the votes cast.
In Central Province, out of the total of 456,833 votes cast, President Hichilema got 276,674 votes representing about 60% of the votes cast. His closest rival, Lungu managed to get 158,598 votes representing about 34% of the votes cast.
In Lusaka Province, out of the 823,888 votes cast, President Hichilema received 442,253 votes representing about 53 % of the votes cast. Lungu on the other hand, got 357,674 votes representing 43 % of the votes cast.
In North-Western Province, out of the total 300,838 votes cast, President Hichilema got 263,473 votes representing 87% of the votes cast. Lungu managed a paltry 27,118 votes representing about 9% of votes cast.
In Southern Province, out of the 655,806 votes cast, President Hichilema got 601,998 votes representing 91 % of the votes cast. Lungu on the other hand only managed to get 36,255 votes representing about 5% of the votes cast.
In Western Province, out of the total of 335,562 votes cast, President Hichilema got 276,280 votes representing 82% of the votes cast. Lungu got 44,641 votes representing 13% of the votes cast.
Out of the six provinces, President Hichilema won by a landslide in three provinces. By contrast, in provinces won by Lungu, the margins were generally much narrower, often in the 54–61% range.
Here is a breakdown of the votes won by Lungu in four provinces.
In Eastern Province, out of the total 568,253 votes cast, the late president got 308,520 votes representing 54 % of votes cast against his closest rival President Hichilema’s 213,707 representing 37 % of votes cast.
In Luapula, out of the 382,328 votes cast, Lungu got 233,129 votes, representing 60% of the votes cast. President Hichilema got 119,550 votes representing about 31 % of votes cast.
In Muchinga province, out of the 278,892 votes cast, Lungu got 172,601 votes representing 61 % of the votes cast. President Hichilema got 86,581 votes representing about 31 % of the votes cast.
In Northern Province, out of the total 411,378 votes cast, Lungu got 231,831 representing about 56% of the votes cast. President Hichilema got 151,389 votes representing 36% of the votes cast.
In view of the stats above, if Mundubile & Makebi are going to pay less attention to three provinces of Western, Southern & North-Western, overcoming the large margins recorded by President Hichilema in those provinces would require exceptionally strong performances elsewhere.
If the UPND has lost popularity in Lusaka & Copperbelt provinces, their performance would not be any different from Lungu’s performance in 2021.
This means, as a ruling party—no matter how bad the UPND will perform in any place across Zambia, they will still manage to garner enough votes to come out second. Those votes count.
As for the opposition like Mundubile & Makebi, It is suicidal for them to rely solely on their regional strongholds while ignoring other places.
They must either expand into their opponent’s strongholds or dominate enough populous provinces elsewhere to offset any deficits. Will these two dominate Lusaka & Copperbelt to the extent of getting over 80 % of the votes cast? Kaya!
Apa, apart from may be Luapula & Muchinga Provinces, Mundubile & Makebi cannot claim to have 100 % support in all the provinces of Lusaka, Copperbelt, Central, Northern & Eastern. The UPND penetrated all these provinces with parliamentary representation in the last election.
Using the power of incumbency, the UPND will be looking to add more numbers & further make inroads in Muchinga & Luapula Provinces.
The objective reality is that any opposition seeking to unseat the UPND faces a steep mathematical and political task.
Below is an “AI generated image” of Mundubile addressing Kabwe’s Makululu residents.
Those who are unaware, Makululu ranks as one of the largest settlements in Southern Africa. It is home to an estimated 60,000 residents.
They should campaign in Cosmopolitan areas of these provinces like Livingstone, Choma,
Monze , Mazabuka, Solwezi, Mwinilunga, Mufumbwe , Kasempa etc.
Mongu , Kaoma, and Kalabo and where they have fielded candidates.
But they need to have Polling Agents at all polling stations through out the country.
Campaigning in Other areas is a waste of Time and Resources..
They should guard their vote diligently. When they lose, there should.be no claims of rigging.
We want.tofocus on moving our country forward after the elections not campaigns or election petitions.
