Koloboi Projection: Mr. Koloboi wins the presidency with 51.47 percent against HH’s 48.53 percent
OF PROJECTIONS AND POCKET CALCULATORS
By Rev. Dr. Elias Munshya
In this election season, we have written of crowds and clowns. We have written of names and nonentities. We have written of surrogates and speakers. Today we must write of projections and pocket calculators.
A graphic is circulating on social media. It calls itself the Zambia Elections 2026 Provincial Results Projection. It is dressed in the colours of seriousness. It carries tables. It carries percentages. It carries a map. And it announces, in a bold headline, that Mr. Koloboi wins the presidency with 51.47 percent against HH’s 48.53 percent.
This graphic was shared by Mr. Elias Kamanga, Elias ishina lya mu cipingo, a senior member of the Koloboi Alliance. There is only one problem.
The graphic’s own numbers say the opposite.
Take out your calculator.
The projection assigns HH provincial votes as follows. Southern 903,256. Western 773,087. North Western 476,119. Copperbelt 504,265. Lusaka 591,915. Central 216,652. Eastern 239,239. Northern 222,880. Muchinga 65,051. Luapula 53,294.
Add them up. The total is 4,045,758 votes for HH.
Now add Mr. Koloboi’s column the same way. It comes to 3,849,293 votes.
On the graphic’s own province by province arithmetic, HH polls 51.2 percent and crosses the 50 plus 1 threshold in the first round. The headline claims HH gets 3,115,506 votes. Their own table gives him over four million. The headline claims a Koloboi victory. Their own spreadsheet elects HH.
They rigged the graphic and still lost the election inside it.
How did this happen?
The authors made a strategic confession without realising it. They conceded Southern, Western, and North Western to HH at margins of 85 to 90 percent. Then, trying to appear reasonable, they gave HH 35 to 40 percent even in the provinces they claim for Mr. Koloboi.
But that combination is mathematically fatal to their own candidate. Overwhelming margins in your strongholds plus respectable shares in your opponent’s strongholds is precisely the formula that wins Zambian elections. It is exactly how HH built his 2021 victory. The propagandists accidentally modelled the incumbent’s winning coalition and then slapped the wrong name on the trophy.
The deeper self sabotage.
Beyond the arithmetic lies the politics. Why would any campaign publish a map conceding three whole provinces before a single ballot is cast?
A campaign map is a message. It tells every citizen: we intend to reach you. We are courting your support. No region is written off. If the ruling party ever asked anyone to draw a fictional map, it would be red everywhere. Every province. Every district. Every ward. That is what a national campaign looks like.
Instead, the Koloboi alliance has published its own surrender documents. Three provinces gone. On their own propaganda. Before polling day.
The lesson.
Serious campaigns run on data. Pretend campaigns run on graphics. And the difference between the two is a pocket calculator.
When your headline and your table disagree, the table wins. When your propaganda and your arithmetic disagree, the arithmetic wins. And when the dust settles on August 13, the numbers will do what numbers always do.
Numbers will refuse to lie for you. Aiminina tente zoona.
Rev. Dr. Amb. Elias Munshya
For sure! These Tonse Alliance guys aren’t SERIOUS. They are LIVING IN STONE AGE where TRIBALISM was rampant.
HH’s running mate is from NORTHERN and she will carry VOTES with her.
Mundubile is will soon be put in political trash bin because of LISTENING TO TRIBALISTS.
Kelvin Fube Bwalya (KBF) is quiet. He knows the fire power UPND have on the ground. FREE EDUCATION, CDF-, Council Workers paind on Time SOCIAL CASH TRANSFER, etc..The whole rural VOTE is in HH’ pocket.
